The race to succeed Dapo Abiodun as governor of Ogun State by May 29, 2027, is gathering momentum, with no fewer than 10 prominent politicians already positioning themselves for what is shaping up to be a highly competitive contest.

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After over a decade and a half in power, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) enters the race with a strong advantage but faces internal calculations over zoning, consensus, and the management of multiple high-profile aspirants.

APC Field: Heavyweights, Technocrats, and Political Loyalists

Among the most prominent names in the ruling party is Solomon Adeola, widely known as Yayi. A seasoned lawmaker with deep political structures, Adeola has emerged as a leading contender, particularly with growing support from stakeholders and lawmakers. Notably, members of the Ogun State House of Assembly have openly endorsed his ambition, strengthening his frontrunner status.

Closely following is Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, a chartered accountant and former governorship candidate. Isiaka’s technocratic credentials and grassroots appeal in Ogun West position him as a strong alternative, especially in discussions around zoning.

Another notable figure is Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Her political pedigree and previous experience in the Senate bring both name recognition and institutional influence into the race.

Diplomatic experience is represented by Sarafadeen Ishola, whose international exposure is seen by supporters as an asset in governance and foreign partnerships.

Also in the mix is Tunde Lemo, a respected financial expert whose technocratic background appeals to reform-minded stakeholders seeking economic stability and fiscal discipline.

Former federal lawmaker Kayode Amusan brings legislative experience and grassroots connections, while media personality Modele Sarafa-Yusuf adds a unique dimension to the race. A cousin to the incumbent governor, she previously challenged him for the APC ticket in 2022, demonstrating political ambition beyond media influence.

Zoning Debate: Ogun West Pushes for Equity

A defining issue in the 2027 race is the agitation for power rotation to Ogun West senatorial district, which has yet to produce a governor since the state’s creation.

This demand has placed Adeola and Isiaka—both from Ogun West—at the centre of the zoning conversation. Political observers note that the APC may consider a consensus arrangement, potentially balancing ambitions by offering alternative positions to unify the bloc.

However, concerns persist over internal divisions within Ogun West, with historical precedents cited where lack of unity cost the zone the governorship in previous elections.

Supporters of the zoning arrangement, including advocacy groups, argue that allowing Ogun West to produce the next governor is a matter of equity, fairness, and justice.

Influence of Political Godfathers

The backing of influential former governors such as Ibikunle Amosun and Gbenga Daniel is expected to play a decisive role in shaping the APC’s eventual candidate.

Their political structures and historical influence across the state remain critical factors in the power equation ahead of party primaries.

Opposition: PDP, ADC and Emerging Voices

From the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the leading figure is Oladipupo Adebutu, who contested the 2023 election and is widely expected to return for another attempt.

Despite concerns over internal divisions within the PDP, party loyalists insist their grassroots structures remain intact and capable of mounting a serious challenge to the APC.

Also active in the opposition space is Segun Showunmi, a vocal political figure, alongside Jimi Lawal, who is pursuing his ambition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Other aspirants on the ADC platform include Biodun Ogundipe, while U.S.-based paediatrician Bolaji Marie Odusina has also indicated interest, though she is yet to formally declare a party affiliation.

APC Dominance vs PDP Challenge

Political analysts believe the APC remains the party to beat, given its 15-year hold on power in the state. However, internal cohesion and the ability to manage competing ambitions will be crucial.

Analyst Samuel Ogunyemi noted that while the PDP has the potential to challenge, its internal fragmentation could weaken its chances. He also pointed out concerns about regional balance, as Adebutu—like the incumbent—is from Iperu Remo, raising questions about inclusiveness.

However, PDP stakeholders, including aide Afolabi Orekoya, have dismissed such concerns, insisting the party is well-positioned to reclaim power.

Battle Lines Drawn

As consultations intensify and alliances take shape, the Ogun 2027 governorship race is emerging as a contest defined by zoning politics, party supremacy, and the influence of political heavyweights.

With Ogun West pressing its case, APC managing a crowded field, and opposition parties seeking to capitalise on any cracks within the ruling party, the battle to succeed Governor Abiodun is poised to be one of the most closely watched political contests in the state’s history.