No two election cycles are the same. Nowhere is this clearer in Nigeria today than in the Southeast.
In 2023, the region voted overwhelmingly for Labour Party presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi. That bloc is no longer guaranteed. While the Southeast remains Obi’s strongest base, the political configuration has shifted significantly.
The 2023 numbers tell the story. President Bola Tinubu won 54 per cent of the vote in his stronghold, the Southwest. Atiku Abubakar won 51 per cent in the Northeast. Obi won 88 per cent in the Southeast.
That dominance is fraying. Obi’s support in the region has dwindled. The bloc voting that powered his 2023 run has fractured, and his NDC has made slow inroads in the Southeast, leaving many of its 2027 elective positions without candidates.
The ADC has filled that vacuum. During its presidential and other primaries in April/May, party members turned out in large numbers across the Southeast, in full view of cameras. In 2023, such a turnout for the ADC would have been unthinkable even with its current configuration.
The shift reflects a political calculation: that the surest path to an Igbo presidency runs through a partnership with Atiku Abubakar, a clear frontrunner for 2027. With the ADC fielding candidates for every elective office in the region in 2027, the party’s profile has surged, driven by its leaders, chieftains, stakeholders, candidates, and supporters.
ADC banners flew at carnival-like rallies before, during, and after the primaries across the Southeast. It is a sign that the region has broken free from the one-man politics of 2023, which many argue left it politically isolated.
Having shown this goodwill to the ADC, it is both fitting and politically prudent for the Southeast to be rewarded with the vice-presidential slot.
Such a pick would energize the region’s formidable electoral machinery and rally Igbo voters in the region and across the nation, behind the party, framing an Atiku presidency as a realistic bridge to a president of Igbo extraction.
Many in the region also see Atiku as a leader with the capacity and heart to address the long-standing marginalisation of Ndigbo in Nigeria’s politics and economy, despite their contributions to national development. Naming a Southeast running mate in the 2027 election that the ADC is primed to win would be the first step toward that healing.
However, that running mate must embody loyalty, character, and competence. He must be scandal-free, gentle, and amiable, yet politically experienced, well-connected, and valuable. He must be contented and deferential, not one who is intoxicated by power, sees himself as Co-President, and competes with his principal in office.
Finally, the Waziri Adamawa and the ADC must weigh Nigeria’s most urgent threat: insecurity. A running mate with security experience, particularly a military background, and with sincerity of purpose, would strengthen Atiku’s hand in breaking the cycle of violence that has gripped the nation, and instil the needed confidence and real hope among the people.
Fabian Nwabueze sent this piece from Abuja
