As the countdown to the 2027 governorship election begins, emerging political permutations in Lagos State suggest that the real contest may not be between rival parties, but within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) on who takes over from Governor Babjide Sanwolu.
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With the dominance of the APC firmly entrenched under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, political analysts say clinching the party’s ticket remains the surest path to succeeding incumbent Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, whose tenure ends on May 29, 2027.
APC’s grip on Lagos politics
Since 1999, Lagos politics has remained under the influence of Tinubu and his political structure. From Tinubu’s administration (1999–2007) to Babatunde Fashola (2007–2015), Akinwunmi Ambode (2015–2019), and now Sanwo-Olu, the state has consistently been governed by parties aligned with the President.
Despite attempts by opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), the ruling APC has remained unshaken. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), despite the involvement of Rauf Aregbesola, is yet to convince observers of its capacity to dislodge the ruling party.
Opposition struggles for relevance
A handful of opposition figures have signaled interest in the race, including Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, who contested under the LP in 2023 and has now moved to ADC. Others include Naheem Balogun, Funso Doherty, and businessman Laja Adeoye.
However, analysts say the opposition faces an uphill battle in a state where the APC’s political machinery has remained dominant for over two decades.
APC aspirants jostle for position
Within the APC, early contenders have begun positioning themselves for what promises to be a fierce internal contest. Among those who have declared interest are Jide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, and Samuel Ajose (SMA), both from Lagos’ Badagry division.
While Adediran campaigns on the “Lagos for Lagos” mantra, Ajose promotes a “Lagos for All” agenda, each seeking grassroots support to bolster their chances.
Key power players quietly positioning for 2027
Beyond declared aspirants, several influential figures are believed to be consulting and building support across Lagos political blocs:
Akinwunmi Ambode
The former governor remains a significant figure, especially among stakeholders in Epe, his home base. There are growing calls for him to return and complete what supporters describe as an “unfinished tenure,” drawing comparisons with predecessors who served eight years. His technocratic style and past governance experience could work in his favour if he regains political backing.
Mudasiru Obasa
A long-serving Speaker since 2015, Obasa is one of the most entrenched political actors in Lagos. Despite surviving a controversial removal and reinstatement, he has maintained strong grassroots and institutional control. Many within the APC view his political resilience and structure as assets that could be crucial in a high-stakes election.
Tunji Alausa
Although he has publicly denied governorship ambitions, his recent political movements—especially increased engagement with stakeholders in Epe—suggest quiet consultations. Analysts note that such denials are typical in early-stage political positioning, particularly for sitting federal appointees.
Femi Gbajabiamila
A former Speaker of the House of Representatives and now Chief of Staff to the President, Gbajabiamila commands both federal influence and grassroots loyalty, particularly in Surulere. His track record in legislative leadership and visible constituency projects position him as a strong contender if he enters the race.
Obafemi Hamzat
Currently serving as deputy governor, Hamzat brings continuity, experience, and loyalty to the existing administration. He is widely regarded as calm, accessible, and politically grounded, with strong family roots in Lagos politics—factors that enhance his acceptability among party stakeholders.
Tayo Ayinde
As Chief of Staff to the governor, Ayinde operates within the inner circle of Lagos power. While less publicly visible, his proximity to decision-making and influence within government circles make him a potential consensus candidate if party leaders opt for a loyal insider.
Hakeem Muri-Okunola
Currently Principal Secretary to the President, he has long-standing ties to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, dating back to when Tinubu was governor. Widely regarded as part of the President’s trusted inner circle, his technocratic profile and administrative experience make him a strong dark horse.
Seyi Tinubu
There have been speculations about his possible ambition, but many political observers dismiss this as premature. Instead, it is seen as a move to build visibility and political capital for future elections beyond 2027.
Tokunbo Abiru
A respected technocrat and former banker, Abiru has built a reputation for competence and financial expertise. His senatorial position and performance record place him among credible contenders, particularly for stakeholders seeking a technocratic governor.
Tinubu’s decisive influence
While zoning and regional considerations may play a role, political observers insist that party cohesion will ultimately shape the outcome. However, one factor stands above all—President Tinubu’s influence.
Insiders within the APC maintain that despite the roles of the Governor’s Advisory Council and other stakeholders, the President remains the most decisive voice in determining who secures the party’s ticket.
A battle within
With opposition parties struggling to gain traction, the 2027 Lagos governorship race is shaping up to be a high-stakes internal contest within the APC—a battle where alliances, loyalty, and political strategy will define the outcome.
As the permutations intensify, one reality remains clear: the road to Alausa runs through the APC—and ultimately, through Tinubu.
